Project duration: November 2015 onwards

Our energy system is undergoing a radical transformation. One of the key challenges at a time of rapid change is to plan and invest in the future of network infrastructure.

Scenarios development
Western Power Distribution (WPD), therefore, commissioned Regen to develop detailed scenarios to understand the future development of distributed energy and demand at a local level up to 2030. We examined the growth potential of grid connected renewable energy technologies, electricity storage and demand from electric vehicles and heat pumps, against four scenarios based on National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios. Growth potential was analysed on a local geographic basis, down to “bulk supply point”.
Our reports for WPD’s south west licence area, East Midland and south Wales licence area are now available:

WPD has now published its report for the South West and South Wales, Shaping sub-transmission to 2030, based on the growth potential data we provided, which assesses options for reinforcement and provides recommendations for ‘low regret’ investment. For example, looking beyond 2020 to 2025 and 2030, the scenarios in the report indicate that further reinforcement is required under every scenario. 

WPD has also commissioned Regen to assess the growth of battery storage under a set of business models Regen identified in the recently published Energy Storage – Towards a Commercial Model 2nd Edition. As well as this growth assessment, Regen have also been tasked to identify a set of key operating modes for given storage systems and analyse how they are expected to interact with the network under different scenarios. Daily and seasonal profiles for each of these operating modes are being developed, giving the expected periods of charge and discharge in much the same way as WPD has a standard generation profile for Solar PV. A consultation paper on this work will be published the first half of 2017.

Next steps
We are currently working with WPD to produce scenarios for its East Midlands licence area and for UK Power Networks (UKPN) on its East of England licence area. If you would like to discuss our scenarios work and how it might apply to your organisation’s work, please get in touch.

Lead by: Joel Venn
Contact: jvenn@regensw.co.uk