SE4 Task 5: Develop target scenarios for renewable electricity and heat and test with stakeholders

Overview of task

This task consists of four key stages, namely:

Step 1: Define scenarios
Step 2: Prepare summary tables
Step 3: Test and discuss with stakeholders
Step 4: Refine and select preferred scenario

Each step is described in more detail below.

Step 1: Define scenarios

For each technology, the extent to which the maximum accessible resource can be delivered by a target date (e.g. 2020) is likely to be determined by a combination of the following:

• Technical maturity, covering both the extent to which new technologies prove to be viable (e.g. such as biomass CHP, using gasification, or the widespread growing of energy crops, or use of gasification/ pyrolysis technology for waste to energy), as well as the extent to which capital costs are expected to fall over time
• Commercial viability, driven by future energy prices, and levels of Government subsidy and financial incentives, and other Government support
• Extent of institutional and infrastructural support, covering the likelihood of securing planning consent (i.e. issues of political and social acceptability), as well as the availability of suitable grid infrastructure, transport infrastructure and so on

Clearly, trying to predict the impact of these different variables is not a precise science, and trying to make such predictions will involve a combination of expert knowledge of the technologies and the policy context they operate in, together with detailed local knowledge of the local politics, infrastructure and projects in the pipeline.

We recommend that the best way to approach this is to use target scenarios to test the impact and feasibility of different assumptions for these key variables.

The precise nature of the variables to be covered under each scenario is likely to be specific to each local authority area, and therefore the description of the assumptions for each scenario should be tested with key stakeholders in each authority. This could include, for example, knowledge about whether there are proposals for a waste to energy facility to be located in the area, or it could be that a local authority was considering two housing growth scenarios, that would affect the levels of uptake of microgeneration depending on which was adopted.

We recommend that, based on the maximum accessible resource, the approach should present two or three scenarios for deployment of low and zero carbon energy generation. Typically, these could represent “Low” and “High” deployment scenarios, i.e. the latter representing the case where a high proportion of the accessible renewable energy resource is harnessed.

These scenarios can then be tested with stakeholders, and a preferred scenario identified, which may well be a combination of, or modified version of the original scenarios. This approach enables stakeholders to discuss the scenarios and understand the key assumptions and parameters that will affect the level of deployment for each technology. This in turn should improve the robustness of assumptions, as well as help to achieve some buy-in to any targets, as stakeholders are not presented with a single target figure as a fait accompli.

Step 2: Prepare resource summary tables

Once the scenarios have been defined, a summary table for each target scenario can be developed. These would draw on the accessible resource information that would be gathered as described in Tasks 3 and 4. We suggest having two sets of summary tables, one for renewable heat and the other for renewable electricity. The tables should show the following information:

• Potential installed capacity, in MW
• Potential annual energy generation, in MWh or GWh
• Percentage of predicted heat or electricity demand by 2020 (see task 1) that could be met by renewable energy

An example of what one of these scenario tables might look like is shown below

Table data was taken from research to support the inclusion of renewable energy targets in the Bath and North East Somerset core strategy. See the report by Camco, “Bath & North East Somerset Council – Renewable Energy Research and Planning”, June 2009, click here to view.

Step 3: Test and discuss with stakeholders

Once the scenarios and summary tables have been produced, these should then be tested with stakeholders, ideally as part of the LDF development process. As a minimum, this could be a workshop held internal to a local authority, involving officers from relevant departments, such as officers responsible for:

Planning policy and development management

• Waste
• Energy management
• Landscape/ conservation
• Sustainability (if one)

The local authority may also wish to involve a wider range of stakeholders to help ensure buy-in from key stakeholders. These could include:

• Elected Members
• Statutory agencies, such as the Environment Agency
• Other local stakeholders, such as developers, National Farmers Union (NFU), local energy agencies, etc.
• The aim of the workshop would be to:
• Test the key assumptions
• Build understanding of the target scenarios, and support for the need for targets and whichever target is adopted

Step 4: Refine and select preferred scenario

Following this stakeholder engagement, preferred targets can be chosen. These may be based on one of the original scenarios, or a modified scenario based on the discussions. The target would then be tested with wider stakeholders as part of the standard LDF consultation and approval process.