SE4 Task 1: Develop existing and future energy demand baseline

Task difficulty:

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SE4

  • 1

    SE4 | Task 1 |

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    Develop existing and future energy demand baseline

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  • 2

    SE4 | Task 2 |

    ?

    Identify existing (and firm proposals for) installed renewable energy capacity

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  • 3

    SE4 | Task 3 |

    ??

    Assess area-wide potential for renewable energy (non-microgeneration)

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  • 4

    SE4 | Task 4 |

    ???

    Microgeneration and building integrated renewable energy uptake assessment

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  • 5

    SE4 | Task 5 |

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    Develop target scenarios for renewable electricity and heat and test with stakeholders

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Overview of task

This task outlines a process for establishing your current energy baseline and, moving forward, predicting energy demand to the end of the plan period. This is to enable the setting of such energy targets for the whole Local Authority area to 2020.

Total final energy consumption data is currently reported at a regional and local authority level by DECC, with the latest year (at the time of writing) for which data is available being 2007.

DECC Regional energy consumption statistics

As recommended in the UK Renewable Energy Strategy (RES), energy consumption data should be split into the following energy sectors: Electricity, Heating, and Transport. The energy sectors as identified within the DECC 2007 total final energy consumption datasets should be classified as follows:

DECC Energy Sector UK RES Sector
Coal [Ind/Com] Heat
Coal [Dom] Heat
Manufactured fuels [Ind] Heat
Manufactured fuels [Dom] Heat
Petroleum products [Ind/Com] Heat
Petroleum products [Dom] Heat
Petroleum products [Road Trans] Transport
Petroleum products [Rail] Transport
Natural gas [Ind/Com] Heat
Natural gas [Dom] Heat
Electricity [Ind/Com] Electricity
Electricity [Dom] Electricity
Renewables and Waste n/a

To establish 2020 energy targets from a 2006 energy baseline, growth in energy demand must be calculated. As indicated above, the UK RES has predicted the total energy consumption for electricity, heat and transport at the UK level for 2020, in table 2.1, (reproduced below). This assumes that electricity consumption by 2020 is about the same as in 2008, and that heat demand has fallen by about 16%. We suggest that, as a rough estimate, you can use the same assumptions to project forward the most recent energy demand for your local authority through to 2020.

  2008 2008 2020 2020
  All Energy (TWh) Renewable Energy (TWh) All Energy (TWh) Renewable Energy for 'lead scenario' (TWh)
Electricity 387 22 386 117
Heat 711 7 599 72
Transport 598 9 605 49
Total final energy consumption (EU Definition) 1695 39 1590 239

Alternatively, you may wish to do a more refined analysis for your own local authority area, allowing for levels of new development, programmes for energy efficiency improvements, or significant changes in terms of large energy users that you may be aware of, such as large industry entering or leaving your area.

 

Model brief G

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