SE4 Task 1: Develop existing and future energy demand baseline
Overview of task
This task outlines a process for establishing your current energy baseline and, moving forward, predicting energy demand to the end of the plan period. This is to enable the setting of such energy targets for the whole Local Authority area to 2020.
Total final energy consumption data is currently reported at a regional and local authority level by DECC, with the latest year (at the time of writing) for which data is available being 2007.
As recommended in the UK Renewable Energy Strategy (RES), energy consumption data should be split into the following energy sectors: Electricity, Heating, and Transport. The energy sectors as identified within the DECC 2007 total final energy consumption datasets should be classified as follows:
|DECC Energy Sector||UK RES Sector|
|Manufactured fuels [Ind]||Heat|
|Manufactured fuels [Dom]||Heat|
|Petroleum products [Ind/Com]||Heat|
|Petroleum products [Dom]||Heat|
|Petroleum products [Road Trans]||Transport|
|Petroleum products [Rail]||Transport|
|Natural gas [Ind/Com]||Heat|
|Natural gas [Dom]||Heat|
|Renewables and Waste||n/a|
To establish 2020 energy targets from a 2006 energy baseline, growth in energy demand must be calculated. As indicated above, the UK RES has predicted the total energy consumption for electricity, heat and transport at the UK level for 2020, in table 2.1, (reproduced below). This assumes that electricity consumption by 2020 is about the same as in 2008, and that heat demand has fallen by about 16%. We suggest that, as a rough estimate, you can use the same assumptions to project forward the most recent energy demand for your local authority through to 2020.
|All Energy (TWh)||Renewable Energy (TWh)||All Energy (TWh)||Renewable Energy for 'lead scenario' (TWh)|
|Total final energy consumption (EU Definition)||1695||39||1590||239|
Alternatively, you may wish to do a more refined analysis for your own local authority area, allowing for levels of new development, programmes for energy efficiency improvements, or significant changes in terms of large energy users that you may be aware of, such as large industry entering or leaving your area.